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Political Transition in Syria: The End of the Assad Regime and the Perspectives for the Future

Internationale Syrienreihe "Syrien am Scheideweg / Syria at a Crossroads" der Fachgebiete Arabistik und Politik des CNMS, des Forums Transregionale Studien/ Berlin und des Merian Institute for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb (MECAM) in Tunis

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Summary:
The breakdown of the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024 has brought Syria back into the focus of world attention. For many Syrians, the rapid, surprising dynamic led to mixed feelings: On the one hand, joy and happiness due to the end of the one of the globally most brutal regimes. On the other hand, fear and anxiety due to the uncertain, possible precarious future. The presentation takes a step back, examining the process of political transition in Syria in four parts: The first part analyses the four areas of territorial control which existed in Syria in 2023/24. The second part studies the rebel offensive, led by the Sunni-Islamist HTS, which managed to take power in most of Syria over the course of only eleven days. The third part takes a closer look at the first weeks of the political transition process in December 2024 and January 2025. The fourth and final part presents major challenges for a stabilization of the political situation in Syria and outlines possible scenarios for the future of the country.

CV:
Dr. André Bank is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Institute for Middle East Studies in Hamburg. Since 2020, Dr. Bank is one of the Principal Investigators of BMBF-funded Merian Center for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb (MECAM) in Tunis. His research foci are on questions of authoritarianism, political transformation and changes in regional order, with a focus on the Middle East and particulary Jordan and Syria. Especially on Syria, Dr. Bank is also a sought after commentator in German and international media: https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/press/giga-insight-syria