12.11.2024 How Do We Know What’s Happening in China?

Article by Jeremy Wallace, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

In the early 1980s, the Chinese leadership promised that the country was going through a period of “reform and opening up.” Gathering information in China was never transparent or without risks, but people were increasingly willing to speak up, and archives and government data slowly became more available. But since 2013, when President Xi Jinping took control, that opening has gone into reverse—a process accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, while observing China has become increasingly difficult, information and resources are out there to use to do good, careful work and analysis—if you know where to look. Rising geopolitical tensions heighten the stakes of misunderstanding China and the rewards for those willing to profess certainties about its circumstances and their implications. Today, a murkily defined China makes for a convenient bogeyman, a justification for protectionist policies and military buildups.
The dangers and costs of trying to understand China on the ground have grown. International researchers are mindful of the chilling case of the “two Michaels”—Canadian citizens Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor—who were arbitrarily detained (although eventually charged with alleged espionage) for nearly three years. Following crackdowns on speech both on and offline, speaking freely—especially to foreigners—has become far more risky for Chinese people. Travel restrictions, COVID-19 quarantines, and reduced international flights have made physical access to the country dear, and some regions, such as Tibet and Xinjiang, are particularly inaccessible.
Even if you make it to China, the quality of what data you can find is declining as the information environment tightens and interlocutors stay tight-lipped. Anecdotally, members of the press report that foreign journalists are a far rarer sight in China today than a decade ago. The China office of the New York Times is based in Seoul rather than Beijing or even Hong Kong, where political freedom has been crushed under draconian new laws passed in 2020.

Source: Foreign Policy 
You can find the full article here.