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NaDiMa Dialogue #8 | Developing Scenarios for Disaster Risk Reduction and Beyond | 23 & 24 April 2021

Foto: Colourbox.de

  • Agenda

    The consequences of major (natural) disasters on modern systems have become increasingly evident. From the Covid-19 pandemic to market collapses, to the imminent dangers of climate change, disasters threaten to inflict greater societal and economic impact over time, while system fragility has become ever more apparent. Reducing the risk of/from disasters is crucial for building resilience and sustainable development in general. However, mitigating and managing risk requires imagining and analyzing future uncertainties, some of which are even unknown unknowns–uncertain variables yet to discover.
     
    This workshop will introduce participants to the –often unfamiliar –notion of foresight and scenarios. We will start by showing the need for inventive imaginary to manage disaster risk before exploring the various concepts and nuances of scenarios (alongside examples from different fields).  The workshop will eventually focus on training participants in the art of developing scenarios and the various ways to make use of them.
     
    Aims of the Workshop:
    • Understanding the world of scenarios
    • Spotting risks and anticipating the future
    • Deriving decisions, monitoring systems, and communication strategies
     
    Training session I (Day 1):
    Introducing scenarios
    • Foresight analysis (history, idea, basic taxonomy) and disaster risk
    • Systematic thinking and examples for cognitive biases
     
    Understanding Scenarios
    • Definition and concept
    • The cone of plausibility
    • Towards a taxonomy
    • What makes a scenario good?
    • Scenarios in natural disaster management
    • Scenarios in business, energy, and security
     
    Developing scenarios
    • A framework for scenario development
    • Key assumptions, truisms, drivers
    • Setting the scope
    • Developing a narrative
    • Supervised group work

    Independent group work (Day 2, morning):
    Participants work on their group projects.

    Training session II (Day 2, afternoon)
    Using scenarios
    • Monitoring progress through indicators
    • Impact assessment
    • Deriving policies and actions from scenarios
    • Scenario communication

    Presenting and discussing scenarios.
    • Supervised group work
    • Group work presentations
    • Discussion / Q&A

  • Speakers

    Introduction:
    Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, CNMS
    Mohammad Farzanegan is Professor of Economics of the Middle East at Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS) & School of Business and Economics at Philipps-Universität Marburg. He is project leader of NaDiMa.

    Workshop Instructor:
    Dr. Dawud Ansari, Senior Researcher at DIW Berlin, Director of EADP
    Dr. Dawud Ansari is an interdisciplinary researcher, consultant, lecturer, and international development practitioner. He holds a PhD in energy and resource economics from the Humboldt University of Berlin after studying at the Berlin Institute of Technology and Johns Hopkins University. Dawud works for the German Institute for Economic Research in addition to advising and coaching clients from the public and the private sector. Moreover, he founded the think-tank and NGO Energy Access and Development Program (EADP), which focusses on sustainable development in the Middle East.

    Dawud is an expert on the application of foresight methods to various fields. He published the innovative DIW-REM Outlook, teaches scenario development, and organizes scenario workshops for government stakeholders and business leaders. In his research, which is published in top-ranked scientific journals such as Nature Energy and World Development, he bridges between cutting-edge numerical simulations (complementarity equilibrium modelling) and scenario analysis. With his thinktank, he introduces decision-makers to foresight analysis for increasing the awareness of and preparedness for upcoming challenges.

  • Prerequisites

    No prior knowledge is required.

    The workshop is aimed at advanced students, researchers, and practitioners from all backgrounds with interest in developing or assessing scenarios.

    The learnings can be applied to academic research, public policy, and the private sector. The workshop highlights natural disasters, but it will also cover business, energy, and security examples. The content is suitable for participants with no or little knowledge of the development and application of scenarios.

  • Registration and Technical Requirements

    Time and Place: 23 April 2021, 10:00 am - 4:00 pm (CET), and 24 April 2021, 9:00 am - 6:00 pm (CET), Online via Adobe Connect 

    How to join: Click here to register for the event.

    Please note! This is a 2-day event. Please only register if you are willing to participate in both parts. 
    The capacities are limited. Slots are allocated on a "first come, first served" principle.

    Platform:     We are using Adobe Connect for the NaDiMa Dialogue Series. It can be accessed via browser or desktop app. Meeting Applications for Adobe Connect can be downloaded here.

    Instructions and Technical Requirements for Participants:
    Quick Start Guide for Participants
    How to be a Participant in Adobe Connect (YouTube)

  • Poster

  • Slides

  • Recording

    You can find the recording of the event here: Part 1 | Part 2