20.09.2021 NaDiMa Dialogue #13 | Introduction to Model-based Assessments of Economic Shocks and Policies in Resource-Dependent Economies | 27 & 29 September

On behalf of the Economics of the Middle East Research Group of Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS) & the Natural Disaster Management (NaDiMa) academic exchange project, we cordially invite you to our thirteenth online NaDiMa Dialogue on

Introduction to Model-based Assessments of Economic Shocks and Policies in Resource-Dependent Economies

Resource-dependent economies face unique policy challenges to ensure economic and resource sustainability and improve socio-economic development.  These challenges stem from dependence on commodities with inherently volatile prices as well as other external shocks, such as climate and environmental challenges, uncertain export demand, energy transitions away from hydrocarbons, natural disasters and pandemics.  Resource economies also face domestic policy challenges, such as widespread subsidies, pervasive oligopolies, Dutch disease, lack of economic diversification, difficult management of resource revenues, environmental degradation, labor and socio-economic welfare.  Economy-wide models have been generally accepted as the best tools for analyzing impacts of economic shocks and designing evidenced-based policy making.  These models integrate economic theory with detailed real-life economic (e.g., macroeconomic, labor, and intersectoral) accounts and physical accounts (e.g., emissions and natural resources) through a system of mathematical equations.  They examine complex interdependent economic systems and shocks, estimating how changes in prices, policies, technology, or other external factors might affect the economy.  Although used by academics and policymakers in national governments and international organizations, there is a gap in the use and application of these models in the context of developing resource economies.  Thus, training and capacity building are important for the economic and resource sustainability of resource economies.  

This course offers an introduction to economy-wide model-based assessments of economic shocks and policies in resource economies.  It has three main objectives: first, to introduce students to the unique policy challenges facing resource-dependent economies; second, to familiarize students with theory and applications of economy-wide models as a tool to derive evidenced-based policy assessments; and third, to guide students in interpreting model results and communicating policy assessment.  The first part of the course introduces the unique policy challenges facing resource economies as well as the use of economy-wide models as an evidenced-based policy analysis tool. The second part presents a case study using the WAFRAGE-KWT model (Shehabi, 2021) and its applications, including data interpretation, in-class practice of model simulations with students, and guidance on interpreting and communicating results in a policy advice.  The third part includes model experiments by students using the Rungem software and presentations of results and policy assessments.  The final part covers additional examples of other relevant case studies and a general discussion of policy implications.

Day 1 (27 September): Introduction and applications

- Introduction  
   - Policy challenges facing resource economies 
   - Economy-wide models, brief theory and use for policy making 

- Case study:  WAFRAGE-KWT Model  
   - SAM database  
   - Model structure and variables 
   - Policy scenario: oil price decline and subsidy reform
 
- Experiment Practice: Model usage, simulations, and results 
   - Range of economic shocks and policy instruments 
   - Implementing simulations using Rungem and interpreting results  
   - Translating results to evidenced-based policy assessment 

- Policy questions and exercise distribution to participants

Day 2 (29 September): Group work, presentations, discussion 

- Q&A over Day 1 material  

- Group presentations and discussions of results  
   - Presentation by each group (5 groups) 
   - Discussions/ Q&A 

- Additional examples and case studies 
   - Economic impacts of climate change 
   - Economics impacts of natural disasters and pandemics 

- Discussion of policy insights and Q&A 

Workshop Instructor:

Dr. Manal Shehabi, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies; Academic Visitor, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University  

Dr. Manal Shehabi is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and Academic Visitor at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University.  An applied economist, she has expertise in energy, sustainability, and policy design focusing on hydrocarbon economies. She publishes in high-impact journals, books, and policy reports. Her publications span modeling, economic diversification, subsidy reform, economic and environmental sustainability, decarbonization, hydrogen, and policies managing the energy transition and hydrocarbon price volatility in oil producing countries. Her research made direct impact on policy making, including constructing an economic model for policymaking in Kuwait, co-authoring reports to international organizations (such as the IPCCC, UNFCCC, and KISR).  Dr. Shehabi taught introductory and advanced undergraduate economics courses at the University of Western Australia and delivered capacity building to economic and climate policymakers in various countries.  She is Director at SHEER Research & Advisory Ltd and frequently advises policymakers and firms. Her language capabilities include Arabic, English, French, Spanish, and Mandarin Chinese.  

Time and Place: 27 September 2021, 11:00 am - 05:00 pm (CET), and 29 September 2021, 11:00 am - 05:00 pm (CET), Online via Adobe Connect

How to join: Click here to register for the event.

Please note! This is a 2-day event. Please only register if you aim to participate in both days