02.05.2024 New Publication: "Nighttime light development after the 2001 flood in Iran: A synthetic control analysis"

A new study by Mohammad Reza Farzanegan and Sven Fischer provides new empirical evidence for the impact of the 2001 flood in Iran.

Abstract:
This study provides new empirical insights into the aftermath of a large-scale flood in Iran. Using the synthetic control method (SCM) and nighttime light (NTL) data, we investigate the impact of the 2001 flood on various northeastern provinces in the country. The results indicate a decline in economic activity in the years following the flood in the counties of Azadshahr, Galikash, and Minudasht, primarily situated in Golestan Province and severely affected by the disaster. Our comprehensive cost estimation reveals a total of US$558.5 million, encompassing both the direct damages caused by the flood and the economic activity losses resulting from it. Notably, earlier estimations had overlooked the latter component (due to the lack of counterfactual analysis), leading to an underestimation of the overall impact of the flood disaster.

• Link to the study