18.12.2024 New Study Examines Impact of Sanctions on Internal Conflict in Iran

A new MAGKS working paper by Professors Farzanegan and Gutmann examines the complex relationship between international sanctions and internal conflict in Iran. By analyzing quarterly data from 2001 to 2020, the study provides a fresh perspective on how changes in the intensity of sanctions influence domestic unrest, specifically civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war.

Using a vector autoregressive model, the researchers found that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity leads to a rise in both civil disorder and the risk of terrorism. Interestingly, however, the risk of civil war tends to decrease when sanctions are ramped up. This suggests that while sanctions may exacerbate certain forms of internal conflict, they may also reduce the likelihood of a full-scale civil war.

The study's findings have significant implications for policymakers. The results indicate that more intense sanctions could pressure political regimes without sparking large-scale violent conflict, such as civil wars. However, the paper also suggests that sanctions alone may not be effective in prompting violent regime change.

Read the full study: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30824.17920