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INTERCEPT: International Climate Migration and climatic Poverty Traps in the Asia-Pacific Region

Contact: Max Burger and Björn Vollan

Rising sea levels, flooding, extreme storm events, and land degradation are some of the consequences of climate change affecting a growing number of people. Historically people have abandoned places that experienced dramatic changes in the environment. Macro-level projections expect the number of climate-induced migration to increase with extreme events becoming more frequent in the future. This prediction is contradicted by insights from micro-level studies (interviews & surveys): Even when confronted with extreme environmental events threatening lives and livelihoods, many choose not to leave their homes. With six Pacific countries among the world’s top 10 high-risk nations the Asia-Pacific region is a global hotspot for climate-related hazards and at the forefront of (potential) climate-induced migration.

Together with our partner Prof. Andreas Neef (University of Auckland) we aim to contribute to a better understanding whether and at what scale climate-induced international migration takes place. To do so, we apply a comparative behavioral approach using qualitative interviews, standardized experiments and surveys with people severely affected by climate change in Bangladesh, Solomon Islands, Samoa, and the Philippines.

In a first step, we analyze individual preferences for (international) migration and their decisions to relocate from or stay in places that are highly affected by climate change. This includes knowledge about the migration procedures, the availability of assets and a deeper understanding of the narratives people have formed about international migration. In a second step, we look at the various consequences of the decision to migrate or not. We investigate the poverty enhancing consequences of both the decision to migrate internationally and locally, as well as staying put and being frequently exposed to climate-related natural disasters. Within this context, we assess the direct economic and social impacts of a “climate trap”. These social impacts may include psychological and emotional distress and losses of vital social networks, cultural identity, norms and customs with inequality being at the root of both the potential cause and the consequences of these socio-ecological processes.

External collaborators: Prof. Dr. Andreas Neef – University of Auckland, New Zealand

Funded by: BMBF